Will Gagan Kumar Thapa be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?

The market strongly favors that Gagan Kumar Thapa will not be the next Prime Minister of Nepal.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood (99.55%) that Gagan Kumar Thapa will not become Prime Minister, with a low probability (0.45%) for his candidacy. The Pulse AI analysis also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus against his potential election. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' for Thapa's candidacy.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 3.45%.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in current predictions.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future shifts.

Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.