Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Gavin Newsom has a low chance of winning the 2028 Democratic nomination at 24.65%.

The prediction market indicates a 24.65% probability of Gavin Newsom winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, with a stronger consensus against him at 75.35%. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting a consistent outlook among market participants.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily against Newsom's nomination.
• 2 The market probability is closely matched by the Pulse AI probability.
• 3 The edge of -1.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 80/100 suggests strong belief in current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in the political climate.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.