Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Gavin Newsom has a low probability of winning the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The prediction market indicates a 17.10% chance of Gavin Newsom winning the 2028 US Presidential Election, with a consensus leaning towards a 'NO' outcome. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 20.1%, but both sources reflect skepticism about his candidacy. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Newsom.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the Pulse AI prediction.
• 3 A confidence score of 75 indicates moderate certainty in the current pricing.
• 4 The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced without significant misalignment.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.