Will Gentner Drummond replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?

Gentner Drummond is unlikely to replace Markwayne Mullin as Senator from Oklahoma.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Gentner Drummond replacing Markwayne Mullin, with a 100% probability of NO. The Pulse AI suggests a slight chance of 4.5% for a YES outcome, indicating a low likelihood of a shift in this political scenario.

• 1 Market shows a strong NO consensus at 100%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a low probability of 4.5% for a YES outcome.
• 3 Current sentiment heavily favors Markwayne Mullin remaining in office.
• 4 The market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 4.5.
• 5 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.

On March 5, 2026, Donald Trump announced that the United States Senator from Oklahoma, Markwayne Mullin, will be appointed to replace Kristi Noem as United States Secretary of Homeland Security.

This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of Oklahoma, or otherwise formally selected according the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Markwayne Mullin’s seat as United States Senator from Oklahoma.

Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.

If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”

Additionally, if, prior to November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a widespread consensus of credible reporting indicates that Markwayne Mullin will complete his term as United States Senator (e.g. if Mullin’s nomination as Secretary of Homeland Security is rejected or withdrawn and he announces he will complete his term), this market will resolve immediately to “None Before Midterm Election.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Oklahoma; h