Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Low probability for Geraldo Alckmin to finish second in the 2026 election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Geraldo Alckmin finishing in second place, with a 98.8% NO probability. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of this outcome. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market probability heavily favors NO at 98.8%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 5.7%.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 4778 hours, allowing for potential changes.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).