Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Germán Vargas Lleras has a low chance of winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Germán Vargas Lleras winning the upcoming election, with a 99.85% probability of a NO outcome. The AI model suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 3.15%, indicating some divergence in sentiment, but overall confidence remains low.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the AI's assessment.
• 3 Germán Vargas Lleras's historical performance may influence perceptions.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable, reflecting investor confidence.
• 5 Time until the election provides room for potential shifts in dynamics.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).