Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

Gerry Hutch has a low chance of winning the 2026 Dublin-central by-election.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood against Gerry Hutch winning the upcoming by-election, with a 95.45% probability of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus on his low chances, although slightly more optimistic. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Hutch.
• 2 Market probability aligns closely with Pulse AI predictions.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in current odds.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential changes.
• 5 Political dynamics could influence future probabilities.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).