Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Gideon Sa'ar has a low probability of becoming Israel's next Prime Minister.

The market indicates a strong consensus against Gideon Sa'ar becoming the next Prime Minister, with a 99.7% probability of NO. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, assigning a 95.2% probability to the NO outcome, suggesting limited confidence in Sa'ar's candidacy.

• 1 Market probability shows overwhelming sentiment against Sa'ar's chances.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry of 7106 hours allows for potential political developments.

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.