Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?

Gold is expected to perform best in 2026 with a high market probability of 71.5%.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that gold will outperform other assets in 2026, reflected in a 71.5% probability. With a confidence level of 75 out of 100, the market appears to be fairly priced, suggesting balanced expectations among participants.

• 1 Current sentiment strongly favors gold's performance in 2026.
• 2 Market probability aligns with Pulse AI's assessment.
• 3 No significant edge indicates fair pricing in the market.
• 4 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty among traders.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for market fluctuations.

This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset.

The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles).

The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch.

The resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported fo