Will Green Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

The market strongly favors the NO outcome for Green Alliance winning most seats.

Current market probabilities indicate a minimal chance of the Green Alliance winning the most seats in the 2026 election. With a market probability of 0.05% for YES and 99.95% for NO, the sentiment is overwhelmingly against their success. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of a shift in favor of the Green Alliance.

• 1 Market shows strong consensus against Green Alliance winning most seats.
• 2 Current sentiment indicates low confidence in Green Alliance's electoral success.
• 3 The edge of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available data.
• 4 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment, reinforcing the NO outcome.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to potential market shifts.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives.

If voting in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Chamber of Representatives.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).