Will "Greenland" be said at the Oscars?

The market strongly favors that 'Greenland' will not be mentioned at the Oscars.

Current market sentiment indicates a 100% probability that 'Greenland' will not be said at the Oscars, with a minimal 1.5% probability for a YES outcome. This suggests a strong consensus among participants that the term is unlikely to be referenced during the event. The confidence level of 85/100 indicates a high degree of certainty in this prediction.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong NO sentiment at 100%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slight chance of YES at 1.5%.
• 3 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced with minimal discrepancy.
• 4 High confidence level of 85/100 reinforces the NO prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts.

The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the scheduled broadcast of the Oscars on ABC. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Commercials which are not part of the show itself will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

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