Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

The market indicates a low probability for Greta Thunberg winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026.

Current market probabilities show a 2.75% chance of Greta Thunberg winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, with a strong consensus against it. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood at 5.75%, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Thunberg's nomination.
• 2 The probability of YES is notably low compared to historical winners.
• 3 Current market pricing suggests limited liquidity and interest.
• 4 The time to expiry allows for potential shifts in public opinion.
• 5 Thunberg's activism may influence future nominations, but currently lacks momentum.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.