Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Grüne has a low chance of winning the most seats in the 2026 Berlin elections.

The prediction market indicates a 9% probability for Grüne to win the most seats, while the AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 13.5%. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 4260 hours, the market appears fairly priced, reflecting a strong consensus against Grüne's chances.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Grüne's historical performance in previous elections may impact perceptions.
• 3 The market shows relatively low liquidity, indicating cautious betting behavior.
• 4 Time remaining until the election allows for potential shifts in dynamics.
• 5 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is well-aligned with AI predictions.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)