Will Guido Eduardo Nayar win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Nayar in the 2026 election.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.95% likelihood that Guido Eduardo Nayar will not win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, with a 95.45% probability for a NO outcome, suggesting a consensus against Nayar's candidacy. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming NO sentiment at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market, indicating low confidence in Nayar's chances.
• 3 Current edge of 4.5 suggests fair pricing in the market.
• 4 Confidence level at 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is 110 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

The Santa Cruz gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).