Will Guillaume Scali be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?

Guillaume Scali has a low chance of becoming Toulouse's next mayor in 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Guillaume Scali will not be the next mayor of Toulouse, with a 99.25% probability against him. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus on his low likelihood of success. The market appears fairly priced, indicating balanced expectations among participants.

• 1 Current market shows a strong preference for 'NO' at 99.25%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability indicates a slight chance for 'YES' at 5.25%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 68 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.

The 2026 Toulouse municipal election is scheduled for March 15, 2026, with a potential runoff on March 22. The Mayor of Toulouse will then be elected by the Toulouse Municipal Council elected in this election.

This market will resolve according to the next individual elected to be the Mayor of Toulouse following this election.

Interim, temporary, or caretaker mayors will not count.

If no such mayor has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Toulouse; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.