Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Gustavo Bolívar is unlikely to win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong belief that Gustavo Bolívar will not win the first round, with a 99.65% NO probability. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 4.85%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100, reflecting uncertainty in the political landscape as the election approaches.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming skepticism about Bolívar's chances.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slight divergence from market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential changes.
• 5 Political landscape may evolve leading up to the election.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).