Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

The market strongly favors Gustavo Petro remaining in leadership until 2027.

With a market probability of 98.75% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus that Gustavo Petro will not exit leadership before 2027. The Pulse AI probability also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher likelihood of change. The edge of 4.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current information.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors Petro staying in power.
• 2 The probability of a leadership change is low based on existing data.
• 3 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher chance of change compared to market odds.
• 4 The market shows a fair pricing with an edge of 4.5.
• 5 Time until expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.