Will Harka Sampang be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?

Harka Sampang has a very low chance of becoming the next Prime Minister of Nepal.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Harka Sampang becoming the next Prime Minister, with a probability of only 0.15% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood, suggesting that current sentiment and political dynamics are not in his favor.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Harka Sampang's probability is significantly lower than the AI's estimate.
• 3 The market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding to the unpredictability of the market.

Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.