Will Ian Noel Smyth win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

Ian Noel Smyth has a low probability of winning the by-election.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Ian Noel Smyth will not win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election, with a market probability of 99.5% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, assigning a 95% probability to the 'NO' outcome, suggesting a consensus on his low chances.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Market probability suggests Smyth's chances are minimal.
• 3 Pulse AI aligns closely with market expectations.
• 4 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time until the election may influence future probabilities.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).