Will India join the Board of Peace?

The market indicates a low probability of India joining the Board of Peace.

Current market probabilities show a strong consensus against India joining the Board of Peace, with a 96.75% likelihood of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting limited expectations for a shift in this political landscape.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for India's membership.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest low investor confidence in a YES outcome.
• 3 The edge indicates that the market pricing is aligned with AI predictions.
• 4 Political developments could quickly alter the current probabilities.
• 5 The time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to the market dynamics.

Donald Trump and the United States recently sent invitations to countries around the world, inviting them to join the US-led Board of Peace which will oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and elsewhere (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-names-rubio-blair-kushner-gaza-board-under-trumps-plan-2026-01-17/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:

- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.

- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).

Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board