Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said at the Oscars?

The market strongly predicts that 'Iran' or 'Iranian' will be mentioned at the Oscars.

With a market probability of 100% for 'YES', there is a strong consensus that 'Iran' or 'Iranian' will be mentioned during the Oscars. The Pulse AI also supports this with a probability of 97.5%, indicating high confidence in this outcome. The edge of -2.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a robust expectation of this event.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly in favor of a YES outcome.
• 2 Key factors include recent geopolitical events and cultural discussions.
• 3 Historical trends show frequent mentions of politically relevant countries at major awards.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting the current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is unknown, but the Oscars are a fixed event, likely influencing sentiment.

The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2026, the 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the scheduled broadcast of the Oscars on ABC. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Commercials which are not part of the show itself will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

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