Will Israel join the Board of Peace?

The market strongly favors Israel joining the Board of Peace.

Currently, the prediction market shows a 100% probability for Israel joining the Board of Peace, indicating unanimous sentiment among participants. The Pulse AI also reflects a high likelihood at 97.5%, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge of -2.5. This strong consensus points to a high level of confidence in the outcome, though the time to expiry remains unknown.

• 1 Market probability indicates total confidence in Israel's membership.
• 2 Pulse AI probability closely aligns with market sentiment.
• 3 The edge of -2.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 High confidence score of 85/100 reflects strong belief in the outcome.
• 5 Unknown expiry time may affect future market dynamics.

Donald Trump and the United States recently sent invitations to countries around the world, inviting them to join the US-led Board of Peace which will oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and elsewhere (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-names-rubio-blair-kushner-gaza-board-under-trumps-plan-2026-01-17/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:

- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.

- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).

Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board