Will Italy join the Board of Peace?

The market strongly indicates Italy will not join the Board of Peace.

Current market probabilities suggest a low likelihood of Italy joining the Board of Peace, with a consensus around a 97.5% chance of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for YES at 5.5%, indicating some uncertainty but overall alignment with the market's view.

• 1 Market probability for NO is significantly higher than YES.
• 2 Pulse AI probability suggests a slight chance of a YES outcome.
• 3 Current sentiment is overwhelmingly against Italy joining the Board.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 3.
• 5 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, indicating some uncertainty.

Donald Trump and the United States recently sent invitations to countries around the world, inviting them to join the US-led Board of Peace which will oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and elsewhere (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-names-rubio-blair-kushner-gaza-board-under-trumps-plan-2026-01-17/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:

- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.

- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).

Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board