Will Italy win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Italy has a low chance of winning the Eurovision 2026 televote according to current market data.

The market indicates a 3.20% probability for Italy winning the televote, significantly lower than the AI's estimate of 7.7%. Both the market and AI probabilities suggest a strong consensus against Italy's chances, with a confidence level of 55 out of 100. With 1317 hours until the event, there is still time for sentiment to shift.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Italy.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the AI's assessment.
• 3 There is moderate confidence in the current pricing of the market.
• 4 Time remaining until the event could allow for sentiment changes.
• 5 Past Eurovision trends suggest volatility in public voting patterns.

The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is scheduled for May 16, 2026.

This market will resolve to the country that receives the highest number of points from the televote in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.

All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.