Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ivan Cepeda Castro's chances in the 2026 election are nearly even.

The prediction market shows a slight edge against Ivan Cepeda Castro winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election, with probabilities at 48.5% for 'YES' and 51.5% for 'NO'. The market is considered fairly priced, indicating a competitive race ahead with a notable level of uncertainty.

• 1 Market probabilities are closely matched, indicating uncertainty.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly lower chance for Cepeda at 47%.
• 3 The edge of -1.5 indicates fair market pricing.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at 2514 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).