Will Iván Arias win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?

Iván Arias has a low chance of winning the 2026 La Paz mayoral election.

The prediction market indicates a 5.05% probability of Iván Arias winning the upcoming mayoral election, with a strong consensus against his candidacy. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 9.55%, but overall sentiment remains firmly against his success. With 110 hours until the election, the market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Arias.
• 2 The market probability is closely aligned with the AI model's assessment.
• 3 Arias' campaign may need to overcome substantial public skepticism.
• 4 The time frame of 110 hours allows for potential shifts in voter opinion.
• 5 Liquidity in the market suggests a stable environment for current predictions.

The La Paz mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).