Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Iván Cepeda Castro has an 81% chance to win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

The market indicates a strong probability of 81% for Iván Cepeda Castro winning the first round of the election, while the AI model suggests a slightly lower probability of 75.5%. The negative edge of 5.5 for the NO side indicates that it may be undervalued, suggesting potential market inefficiencies.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Cepeda Castro.
• 2 The AI model reflects a slightly lower confidence than the market.
• 3 The NO side appears to have a potential undervaluation.
• 4 Time until the election is relatively short at 1940 hours.
• 5 Market dynamics may change with new political developments.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).