Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?

The market indicates low likelihood for Talarico and Paxton as candidates at 21%.

With a market probability of 21% for YES and 79% for NO, it suggests that Talarico and Paxton are unlikely to be candidates in the Texas Senate Election. The Pulse AI probability aligns with this sentiment, indicating a consensus on the low chances of their candidacy.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors the NO outcome.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a stable expectation regarding candidates.
• 3 Market appears to be fairly priced with no significant edge.
• 4 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, which could affect future volatility.

The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.

This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.

This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.

If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.