Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 10% and 15.00%?

Market strongly favors NO for Talarico winning by 10-15%.

The prediction market indicates a high probability of NO at 99.3%, suggesting skepticism about Talarico's chances of winning the primary by the specified margin. The Pulse AI also supports this view with a 96.3% likelihood of NO, indicating a consensus on the outcome. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO outcome.
• 2 Talarico's campaign dynamics may influence future probabilities.
• 3 Historical trends suggest similar outcomes in past primaries.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting established views.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to the forecast.

Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).

If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to