Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 5.00% and 5.50%?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for Talarico winning by 5.00%-5.50%.

The prediction market shows a 99.85% probability that James Talarico will not win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 5.00% and 5.50%. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 4.65% for a YES outcome, indicating a consensus that the likelihood of this specific margin is minimal.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 99.85%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment at 95.35% for NO.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 6188 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

Primary elections in Texas took place on March 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).

If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If any outcome other than the listed options occurs, or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

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