Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 6.50% and 7.00%?

Market strongly favors NO for Talarico winning by 6.50% to 7.00%.

The prediction market indicates a low probability of James Talarico winning the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by the specified margin, with a market probability of 0.60% for YES. The Pulse AI also reflects skepticism, assigning a 5.1% chance for YES, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge towards NO.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO at 99.4%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a low likelihood of Talarico winning in the specified range.
• 3 The confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant at over 6200 hours, allowing for potential changes.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a small edge of 4.5.

Primary elections in Texas took place on March 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).

If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If any outcome other than the listed options occurs, or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

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