Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by less than 5.00%?

The market strongly favors Talarico losing the primary by over 5%.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood that James Talarico will not win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by less than 5%. With a market probability of 99.95% for 'NO' and a Pulse AI probability of 95.45% for the same outcome, the consensus suggests minimal chance for a close result.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a decisive outcome for Talarico.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher chance for a close result than the market.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate, suggesting some uncertainty remains.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in dynamics.
• 5 Current sentiment reflects a strong belief in a clear victory margin.

Primary elections in Texas took place on March 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).

If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If any outcome other than the listed options occurs, or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

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