Will Janet Horner win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

Market strongly favors NO for Janet Horner in the 2026 Dublin-central by-election.

The prediction market shows a significant preference for NO at 99.55%, while the AI model suggests a slightly higher probability for YES at 4.95%. The edge of 4.5 indicates that the market is fairly priced, with a moderate confidence level of 60 out of 100. With over 6800 hours until the election, sentiment may evolve as new information emerges.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO for Horner's candidacy.
• 2 AI model suggests a slightly higher chance for YES compared to the market.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates a balanced market pricing.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time until the election allows for potential shifts in dynamics.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).