Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

Janice Boylan has a low chance of winning the 2026 Dublin-central by-election.

The prediction market indicates a low probability of 14.05% for Janice Boylan's victory in the upcoming by-election, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 18.55%. The market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100, indicating moderate uncertainty about the outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The gap between market and AI probabilities suggests some room for adjustment.
• 3 The election is still far off, allowing for potential changes in dynamics.
• 4 Low liquidity may affect the responsiveness of the market to new information.
• 5 Historical trends in similar elections could provide context for Boylan's chances.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).