Will Januario Ortega be the Republican nominee for Senate in Illinois?

Januario Ortega is highly unlikely to be the Republican nominee for Senate in Illinois.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Januario Ortega as the Republican nominee, with a 99.95% probability of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of his nomination. With 87 hours until expiry, the market appears to be fairly priced given the current probabilities.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 4.55%.
• 3 Market confidence level is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is limited at 87 hours, adding urgency to the market.
• 5 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is likely accurately priced.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Illinois.

If no 2026 Illinois Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Illinois Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.