Will Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?

The market strongly favors 'NO' for both candidates in the Texas Senate Election.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood that Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton will not be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election. The market probability stands at 99.5% for 'NO', while the AI probability also supports this with 96.5% for 'NO', suggesting a consensus against their candidacies.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong preference for 'NO' at 99.5%.
• 2 AI probability aligns closely, indicating consensus at 96.5% for 'NO'.
• 3 The edge score of 3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in the predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, which may affect market volatility.

The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.

This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.

This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.

If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.