Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Jason Duey is unlikely to be the Republican nominee for AZ-01, with low market support.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Jason Duey will not be the Republican nominee for AZ-01, with a 99.4% probability of 'NO'. The Pulse AI further supports this view, assigning a 94.9% probability to the 'NO' outcome, suggesting a consensus against Duey's nomination.

• 1 Current market probability shows overwhelming support for 'NO'.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating low confidence in Duey's nomination.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced based on available information.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential changes in the political landscape.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.