Will Jason Friedman be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?

Jason Friedman has a low chance of being the Democratic nominee for IL-07.

The prediction market indicates an 87.5% probability that Jason Friedman will not be the Democratic nominee for IL-07, suggesting strong skepticism about his candidacy. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, with an 83% probability against his nomination, indicating a consensus among market participants. With a confidence level of 60 out of 100, the market appears fairly priced with a slight edge towards the NO outcome.

• 1 Current market probability favors NO at 87.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a similar NO probability at 83%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 4.5.
• 5 Time until expiry is 131 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.