Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?

The market strongly favors Javier Milei not being the next leader before 2027.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood that Javier Milei will not be the next leader before 2027, with a consensus of 99.2% against this outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 5.3% for this scenario, suggesting a strong belief in stability within the current political landscape.

• 1 Market probability suggests strong confidence against Milei's leadership before 2027.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns with market sentiment, indicating low expectations for change.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 indicates the market is fairly priced with little room for mispricing.
• 4 Current confidence level of 65/100 reflects moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry of 6950 hours allows for potential political developments to unfold.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.