Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Jay Feely has a strong chance to be the Republican nominee for AZ-01.

The market indicates a 71% probability that Jay Feely will be the Republican nominee for AZ-01, suggesting strong support for his candidacy. However, the Pulse AI probability is slightly lower at 65.5%, indicating some skepticism. The edge of -5.5 for the NO side suggests it may be undervalued, reflecting potential for shifts in sentiment as the election approaches.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors Feely as the nominee.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly lower confidence in his nomination.
• 3 The NO side is perceived as undervalued by 5.5 points.
• 4 Market confidence is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 5 Time until expiry is significant at 3252 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.