Will J.D. Vance be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Low probability of J.D. Vance leaving the Trump Cabinet before 2027.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that J.D. Vance will remain in the Trump Cabinet until 2027, with a 98.8% probability of 'NO' compared to a 1.20% probability of 'YES'. The AI model suggests a slightly higher chance of departure at 5.7%, but overall confidence in the market's pricing is moderate.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence in Vance staying in the Cabinet.
• 2 AI probability suggests a minor chance of departure, indicating some uncertainty.
• 3 Current sentiment heavily favors stability within the Trump Cabinet.
• 4 Market pricing appears fair with a low edge of 4.5.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential future developments.

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of th