Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

JD Vance has a low probability of winning the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The market currently indicates a 17.45% chance of JD Vance winning the 2028 US Presidential Election, with a stronger consensus against him at 82.55%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 20.45%, but overall confidence in his candidacy remains low.

• 1 Market probability shows strong skepticism about Vance's chances.
• 2 The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher but still indicates low confidence.
• 3 Current sentiment reflects a challenging environment for Vance's campaign.
• 4 The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.
• 5 Time to expiry is extensive, allowing for potential shifts in the political landscape.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.