Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?

The market shows a nearly even split on Moudenc's chances in the 2026 election.

With a probability of 48.5% for a YES outcome and 51.5% for NO, the market indicates a highly competitive race for the mayoral position in Toulouse. The confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate uncertainty among participants regarding the election outcome.

• 1 Market probabilities are closely matched, indicating uncertainty.
• 2 Current sentiment reflects a divided opinion on Moudenc's re-election.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate belief in the current probabilities.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 No edge indicates that the market is fairly priced at this moment.

The 2026 Toulouse municipal election is scheduled for March 15, 2026, with a potential runoff on March 22. The Mayor of Toulouse will then be elected by the Toulouse Municipal Council elected in this election.

This market will resolve according to the next individual elected to be the Mayor of Toulouse following this election.

Interim, temporary, or caretaker mayors will not count.

If no such mayor has been elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Toulouse; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.