Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?

Jean-Michel Aulas has a low probability of winning the 2026 Lyon mayoral election.

The market indicates a 25.5% chance of Jean-Michel Aulas winning the 2026 Lyon mayoral election, suggesting skepticism about his candidacy. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a fair pricing edge, the market reflects a clear preference for the 'NO' outcome. The time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment as the election approaches.

• 1 Current market probability favors 'NO' at 74.5%.
• 2 Aulas' political experience and public perception are key factors.
• 3 The market is currently fairly priced with no edge.
• 4 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time remaining until the election could influence future probabilities.

The 2026 Lyon municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Lyon, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).