Will Jesse Jackson Jr. be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?

Jesse Jackson Jr. has a 45% chance to be the Democratic nominee for IL-02.

The prediction market indicates a slight edge against Jesse Jackson Jr. being the Democratic nominee for IL-02, with a 55% probability for 'NO'. The market appears fairly priced, reflecting a moderate level of confidence at 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market probability shows a competitive race.
• 2 Sentiment leans slightly against Jackson Jr. as nominee.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is limited at 92 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 No significant edge indicates fair pricing in the market.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.