Will Jhonny Fernández win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?

Jhonny Fernández has a low chance of winning the 2026 mayoral election in Santa Cruz.

The prediction market indicates a 3.40% probability of Jhonny Fernández winning the upcoming mayoral election, with a strong consensus against his candidacy at 96.6%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 7.9%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60 out of 100, indicating uncertainty in the market's sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Fernández's chances are perceived as low based on existing data.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with a 4.5 edge.
• 4 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time until the election is limited, adding urgency to market movements.

The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).