Will Jhonny Plata win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?

Jhonny Plata has a low chance of winning the 2026 La Paz mayoral election.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong expectation that Jhonny Plata will not win the upcoming election, with a 96.85% chance of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for a YES outcome. This suggests that while there is minimal support for Plata's candidacy, some uncertainty remains.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Plata.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for YES than the market.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level at 60 indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, with only 108 hours remaining.

The La Paz mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).