Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

John Stephens has a low chance of winning the 2026 Dublin-central by-election.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against John Stephens winning, with a 98.65% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 5.85%, indicating some uncertainty but overall low confidence in his candidacy.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 98.65%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 5.85%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 6821 hours, allowing for potential developments.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).