Will John Trobough be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

John Trobough is unlikely to be the Republican nominee for AZ-01.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against John Trobough being the Republican nominee, with a 96.6% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating low confidence in his candidacy.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 96.6%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability also aligns with a strong 'NO' at 92.1%.
• 3 The edge of 4.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 3257 hours, allowing for potential changes.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.