Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Jorge Nieto has a low chance of winning the 2026 Peruvian presidential election.

The prediction market indicates a 6.90% probability of Jorge Nieto winning the election, while the AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 11.4%. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 780 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced, reflecting skepticism about Nieto's candidacy.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Nieto.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the AI's assessment.
• 3 A confidence level of 60 suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 The time to expiry allows for potential changes in the political climate.
• 5 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent participant interest.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).